Driven by cost factors, galvanized coil may perform relatively strongly in April

In March 2026, the domestic galvanized coil market exhibited a seasonal recovery. Following the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises resumed work and production in a concentrated manner, coupled with the onset of the traditional peak demand season known as the "Golden March", leading to a marked improvement in the market supply and demand dynamics compared to February. From the supply side, the average capacity utilization rate of galvanized coil production enterprises nationwide reached 65.75% in March, marking a significant increase of 10.85 percentage points from February and an increase of 3.18 percentage points compared to the same period in 2025. From the demand side, terminal restocking demand was released in stages, with spot prices following suit and enterprise profit margins expanding.

In terms of imports and exports, China's total exports of galvanized sheets in January 2026 amounted to 1.4145 million tons, marking a month-on-month decrease of 28.32%. The total exports in February reached 1.7326 million tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 22.49%. The total exports for January and February combined totaled 3.1471 million tons, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 0.29%. On the import side, there was a notable contraction, with the total imports of galvanized sheets for January and February amounting to 122,700 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 21.46%.

Regarding inventory, as of April 2, the social inventory of galvanized coil in key cities stood at 1.6134 million tons. During the Spring Festival period, the inventory reached a peak of 1.7064 million tons on March 11 and then declined for three consecutive weeks. However, it is still 244,000 tons higher than that of the same period last year, indicating that the overall pressure remains prominent. In terms of profits, the profit margin per ton for private galvanized coil rolling enterprises in March was roughly between 20 and 50 yuan/ton, which is a significant improvement compared to the previous period. Looking ahead to April, the price trend of galvanized coil may rely on cost support from raw materials or follow a certain upward trend. However, the pace of terminal procurement and the rate of inventory reduction will be key variables determining whether the market can further strengthen