Weak reality vs. strong expectations: Analysis of the price trend of galvanized coil in the second quarter of 2026

In the second quarter of 2026, the national galvanized coil market entered the core stage of a deep game between "weak reality" and "strong expectations". Looking back at the first quarter, the inertia of sluggish market recovery continued, and substantial improvements on both the supply and demand sides had not yet materialized. The industry still faced practical pressures such as high inventory levels and weaker-than-expected demand release.

Looking at the price trend, the average price of galvanized coil nationwide in the first quarter of 2026 exhibited a "moderate upward" characteristic, without experiencing sustained significant increases or decreases. In early April, influenced by the weak reality of high inventory in the first quarter and weaker-than-expected demand release, prices continued to fluctuate, with some regions experiencing slight corrections to accelerate inventory reduction. The absolute price index of galvanized coil nationwide briefly dipped to around 3,953 yuan/ton.

Regarding inventory, as of April 17, 2026, the social inventory of galvanized coil nationwide is at a critical stage of "high level and slow decline". The post-holiday peak inventory has passed, and the inventory reduction channel has officially opened, but the absolute inventory level remains at a high level for the same period in the past four years, and the reduction speed is relatively slow. The fundamental reason for the high inventory is the sustained high supply of galvanized coil - the production capacity of galvanized coil in 2026 is expected to reach 135 million tons, and the annual production is estimated to be 73.67 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons compared to 2025. Steel mills generally have a low willingness to reduce production. On the one hand, there is still a slight profit margin in galvanized coil production, and on the other hand, steel mills choose to maintain a high production pace in order to maintain market share and cash flow.

In terms of production, as of April 17th, the weekly output of galvanized coil nationwide has rebounded to a high level of approximately 1.19 million tons, with capacity utilization remaining in the range of 67%-68%. The market in the second quarter is expected to exhibit a range-bound fluctuation pattern with an upper limit and a lower limit. The core operating range of the absolute price index for galvanized coil is anticipated to be between 3,900 and 4,000 yuan/ton, making it difficult to form a unilateral trend market